“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
― Ezra Solomon
Happy New Year from Baltimore.
It was nearly 60 degrees in the city yesterday. Today, there are several inches of snow on the ground — enough to give everyone an extra day at home. Not that we need a reason, given the spread of Omicron.
Even if it were safe to travel the unplowed streets to the office, the building would be largely empty anyway.
One member of the staff spent the holiday break dealing with a severe sore throat while hunting in vain for a COVID test. Another team member learned that his brother-in-law tested positive a few days after they enjoyed Christmas dinner together.
So we’ll all be working remotely until we’re sure our business won’t become the epicenter of a superspreader cell.
All in all, not a great start to 2022… at least locally. But the snow will melt and Omicron will eventually fade away. In the meantime, we’re left to wonder what the new year will mean to your wealth.
There is no shortage of opinions about that, of course. Over the past two weeks, just about every financial media company has published a list of predictions and forecasts. Our editors and analysts have offered their thoughts as well.
It’s the usual barrage of information overload… a variety of voices who are all looking at the same data but foreseeing very different outcomes. Developing your wealth strategy for 2022 means sifting through a lot of conflicting noise.
That’s why we’re going to spend the next few days helping you make some sense out of the cacophony. We’ll take a look at what the mainstream press is saying to expect… and compare it to what our team of in-house experts has to say.
In some cases, the overlap may surprise you. Our analysts are not contrarian just to be contrarian. They follow the data to wherever it goes. If that happens to be in lockstep with the zeitgeist, so be it.
But you should also know that there’s a lot of wishful thinking out there. If nothing else, 2022 could be the year that unbridled optimism costs you dearly.
We’ll jump into it tomorrow.
Follow your bliss,
Founder, The Financial Reserve