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THE DAILY MISSIVE

The Daily Missive

Revenge Travel, or The Family Goes To The Beach

By July 6, 2023No Comments

Aruba, Jamaica, ooh, I wanna take ya Bermuda, Bahama, come on pretty mama…”

— Beach Boys

We titled yesterday’s missive “Summertime and the livin’ is easy,” after the Gershwin ditty.

Jackie B retorted: “Oh really? For the super rich?”

Maybe the irony was not explicit enough… We wanted to poke holes in the weird psychology of the summer, and how it seems to make everything all gold-tinted and beautiful. In reality, the real problems of financial duress are latent like Scylla under a Mediterranean cruise ship.

But who likes to think like that all the time?

The headlines read of a slew of big-name companies hitting 52-week highs on the stock market. And it’s not just Big Tech giants putting up enticing numbers.

Walmart, Chipotle, McDonald’s (“It’s Grimace’s Birthday!”), Lowes, Marriott Hotels… One might think the summer has brought about a renewed era of “You-see-it-in-the-wild” fundamentals.

Carnival is the most impressive of the newly minted 52-week Club.

The press has clued in on its sizable momentum. (Might we say, shamelessly, that our very own Zach Scheidt at The Essential Investor added Carnival to the watchlist on March 10, 2023. We are sitting on a nice 73.7% egg, and counting. Not a bad position for us!).

Carnival (CCL) vs the S&P 500 as a frame of reference: Notice the drop off a cliff in March 2020. And the uptick this summer at the far right of the chart. Needless to say, there is ample room for CCL stock to slog higher as consumer demand rebounds and its price finds a new normal. (Source: The Motley Fool)

“We’re back,” Carnival’s new CEO Josh Weinstein told Yahoo! Finance earlier this year from their headquarters in Doral, Florida.

We like what we see… but as is often our thesis, we ask: Does this trend hold up?

Carnival is benefitting from what Delta CEO Ed Bastion calls “revenge travel,” or a surge in ticket purchases as vacation-starved Americans “take over” the white sand beaches and pretty tourist destinations of the world.

The island of Aruba alone is experiencing rapid growth from the U.S. and Canada, up a staggering 57.3 percent over 2022. The Queen Beatrix International Airport said in a statement:

The estimated number of passengers and aircraft movements that will be handled for the year 2023 still looks very positive and promising and is set to as yet reach the estimated recovery of 108% for the year 2023 versus 2019.

A return to “normal” at last. And a sigh of relaxation, maybe.

It seems that the pent-up demand for buffets and drink coupons, bingo and sunbathing somewhere other than your backyard is more powerful than sticky inflation, high ticket prices, and long lines through customs.

This time when the family goes to the beach, maybe we forget about the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic or Carnival’s long-term growth potential, or the oncoming tidal wave of tightening financial conditions for the consumer.

Summer is the time for discretionary spending, after all…

Follow your own bliss,

Addison Wiggin
The Wiggin Sessions

P.S. When Carnival stock fell last week, my son Henry asked why, considering it had steadily climbed for almost 2 months straight. “It seems to be mostly profit taking,” I summed up. After earning were released to the public surpassed analyst estimates, investors thought it a good time capitalize on the peak.

That said, just a week later we see that CCL was up very sharply this month. Bullish sentiment is still alive and well.

Addison Wiggin: The Wiggin Sessions

Addison Wiggin

Addison Wiggin is an American writer, publisher, and filmmaker. He was the founder of Agora Financial and publisher for 18 years. An acclaimed New York Times best-selling author, his books include: Financial Reckoning DayEmpire of DebtThe Demise of the Dollar, and The Little Book of the Shrinking Dollar. Addison is also the writer and executive producer of the documentary I.O.U.S.A., an exposé on the national debt, shortlisted for an Academy Award in 2008. He lives in Baltimore, Maryland with his family. Addison started his latest project, The Wiggin Sessions, powered by Consilience Financial, in March 2020. He films from a homegrown studio in his basement.

Addison Wiggin

Addison Wiggin Addison Wiggin is an American writer, publisher, and filmmaker. He was the founder of Agora Financial and publisher for 18 years. An acclaimed New York Times best-selling author, his books include: Financial Reckoning DayEmpire of DebtThe Demise of the Dollar, and The Little Book of the Shrinking Dollar. Addison is also the writer and executive producer of the documentary I.O.U.S.A., an exposé on the national debt, shortlisted for an Academy Award in 2008. He lives in Baltimore, Maryland with his family. Addison started his latest project, The Wiggin Sessions, powered by The Essential Investor, in March 2020. He films from a homegrown studio in his basement.