“While headline inflation is down from its highs,” reads a tweet from the Kobeissi letter this morning, “many basic necessities are still seeing 5%+ inflation.”

Today, we thought we’d follow the suggestion Basil inferred yesterday. We picked up our guitar and we’re ready to play. We started by tuning the “i” string: Inflation.

Suggestion: Today’s missive will flow better if you read as if you’re listening to the 1982 punk anthem “Rock The Casbah” by The Clash. And a sip of gin.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers
came out yesterday… ay, yee, ayyyah.

Inflation remains at 3.7%
Higher than JPow wants to say.

Worse, it’s much higher…er.
For basic necessitie_ee_ees:
T’will put consumers on their knee-ee-ees.

Loudspeaker:

1. Car Insurance Inflation: 18.9%
2. Car Repair Inflation: 10.2%
3. Transportation Inflation: 9.1%
4. Rent Inflation: 7.4%
5. Homeowner Inflation: 7.1%
6. Food Away From Home Inflation: 6.0%
7. Meat & Poultry Inflation: 4.8%
(Source: The Kobeissi Letter)

We don’t have ‘deflation”… nyet. Nyet. Nyet.
It’s worse, it’s dis-inflation. Yet. Yet.

As confusing as it is…
The rate of inflation is decli-in-ing. (It is!)
But prices are still going up.

You work at your job
And try to fill your cup
Troubling truth is…
A buck and worth what it was

Jerome dooon’t like it. But…
Prices’re getting worse.
Jerome don’t like it…
Inflation’ll steal your purse.

What’s the Fed gonna do?
We don’t know.
They gave up on multiple hikes in a row.

Now odds are 50%/50%…
They’ll hike before year’s end.
What’s their real goal?
You gotta spend, spend, spend.

What really happens next?
The T-note yield goes boom.
The Fed’s in a noose.
They’ve got no wriggle room.

Jerome doon’t like it…
When bond yields rise… stocks must fall.
Jerome, he don’t like it…
Even tech stocks must fall, yeah.

The melody begins to wind down.

A voice over clip repeats: “Risk levels from inflation, unsustainable debt, market tops and war, are, sadly, fundamental symptoms of debt cycles and debt crises.”

Where do we go from here?

(Music fades completely).

C’mon, it’s Friday.

We’ve condensed our forecast, here:

1. More shocking cases of civil violence as economic anxieties increase
2. United States economic and geopolitical influence declines as trade wars amp up and globalization breaks down
3. A – continued! – disgraceful breakdown in the political structure of the US government, giving rise to even more fringe groups…

We give better details in The Great American Shell Game, here. Or if you prefer to read, you can find the transcript right here.

Jerome, he don’t like it…

Rock the cash bar,

Addison Wiggin,
The Wiggin Sessions

P.S. Hope you like the Clash, otherwise today’s missive made zero sense.

P.P.S. The actual lyrics from Rock the Casbah are interesting given the song crossed our audio awareness in 1982. The lyrics tell the story of an English punk band getting banned from holding concerts in public spaces, temples and squares in the Middle East:

Now the King told the boogie man
You have to let that raga drop
The oil down the desert way
Has been shakin’ to the top
The Sheik, he drove his Cadillac
He went a-cruisin’ down the ville
The muezzin was a-standin’
On the radiator grille (ow!)

Sharif don’t like it
Rockin’ the Casbah
(Lyrics continue here.)

Enjoy the weekend.